Artikel
The EU ETS to 2030 and beyond: adjusting the cap in light of the 1.5°C target and current energy policies
The Paris Agreement calls on countries to pursue efforts to limit global average temperature rise to 1.5°C. We derive a 2016–2050 emission budget for the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) based on cost-effectiveness criteria aimed at achieving the 1.5°C target with a 50%–66% probability, and translate it into a cap reduction path. We show that, under current ETS parameters, the vast majority of this budget will be consumed by 2030. Meeting the budget under current 2030 EU ETS parameters would require drastic – and probably unrealistic – additional efforts after 2030. We derive a cost-effective scenario delivering a smoother and more credible emission pathway. We show that recently increased EU targets for renewable energy and energy efficiency, along with national coal phase-out policies up to 2030 provide cap adjustment potential. If the cap is adjusted to reflect these policies and if phased-out coal capacities are fully substituted through renewable energy, emissions in ETS sectors could decline by 57% through to 2030. This approximates our cost-effective scenario and translates into a linear reduction factor (LRF) for the cap of 3.6% for the period 2021–2030.
- Language
-
Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
-
Journal: Climate Policy ; ISSN: 1469-3062 ; Volume: 21 ; Year: 2021 ; Issue: 6 ; Pages: 778-791 ; London: Taylor & Francis
- Classification
-
Wirtschaft
Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
Environmental Economics: Government Policy
- Subject
-
EU ETS
Cap adjustment
Paris Agreement
Climate policy
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Zaklan, Aleksandar
Wachsmuth, Jakob
Duscha, Vicki
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
-
Taylor & Francis
- (where)
-
London
- (when)
-
2021
- DOI
-
doi:10.1080/14693062.2021.1878999
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:45 AM CET
Data provider
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Artikel
Associated
- Zaklan, Aleksandar
- Wachsmuth, Jakob
- Duscha, Vicki
- Taylor & Francis
Time of origin
- 2021
Other Objects (12)
An Analysis of Allowance Banking in the EU ETS
Does the EU ETS cause carbon leakage in European manufacturing?
Does the EU ETS cause carbon leakage in European manufacturing?
Does the EU ETS cause carbon leakage in European manufacturing?
Coase and cap-and-trade: Evidence on the independence property from the European carbon market
Coase and cap-and-trade: Evidence on the independence property from the European electricity sector
Coase and cap-and-trade : Evidence on the independence property from the European electricity sector
Free Allocation and the Endowment Effect in Cap-and-Trade Systems: Evidence from the European Electricity Sector
Does the EU ETS cause carbon leakage in European manufacturing?
Why do emitters trade carbon permits? Firm-level evidence from the European emission trading scheme
Why do emitters trade carbon permits? Firm-level evidence from the European emission trading scheme
Weiterer Preisanstieg ist unwahrscheinlich : Sechs Fragen an Aleksandar Zaklan
An Analysis of Allowance Banking in the EU ETS
Does the EU ETS cause carbon leakage in European manufacturing?
Does the EU ETS cause carbon leakage in European manufacturing?
Does the EU ETS cause carbon leakage in European manufacturing?
Coase and cap-and-trade: Evidence on the independence property from the European carbon market
Coase and cap-and-trade: Evidence on the independence property from the European electricity sector
Coase and cap-and-trade : Evidence on the independence property from the European electricity sector
Free Allocation and the Endowment Effect in Cap-and-Trade Systems: Evidence from the European Electricity Sector
Does the EU ETS cause carbon leakage in European manufacturing?
Why do emitters trade carbon permits? Firm-level evidence from the European emission trading scheme
Why do emitters trade carbon permits? Firm-level evidence from the European emission trading scheme
Weiterer Preisanstieg ist unwahrscheinlich : Sechs Fragen an Aleksandar Zaklan
An Analysis of Allowance Banking in the EU ETS
Does the EU ETS cause carbon leakage in European manufacturing?
Does the EU ETS cause carbon leakage in European manufacturing?
Does the EU ETS cause carbon leakage in European manufacturing?
Coase and cap-and-trade: Evidence on the independence property from the European carbon market
Coase and cap-and-trade: Evidence on the independence property from the European electricity sector
Coase and cap-and-trade : Evidence on the independence property from the European electricity sector
Free Allocation and the Endowment Effect in Cap-and-Trade Systems: Evidence from the European Electricity Sector
Does the EU ETS cause carbon leakage in European manufacturing?
Why do emitters trade carbon permits? Firm-level evidence from the European emission trading scheme
Why do emitters trade carbon permits? Firm-level evidence from the European emission trading scheme