Fertility, mortality, and the developed worlds demographic transition

Arbeitspapier

This study uses Fehr, Jokisch, and Kotlikoff's (2004a) dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze the effects of changes in fertility and mortality on the developed world's demographic transition. The model features three regions – the U.S., Japan, and the EU-15 – and incorporates age- and time-specific fertility and mortality rates, detailed fiscal institutions, and international capital mobility, subject to adjustment costs. Our simulations confirm the offsetting fiscal and economic consequences of both higher fertility and lower mortality rates. The simulations indicate very minor effects on the developed world's rather bleak baseline transition path from either major increases in fertility rates or major reductions in mortality rates.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 1326

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models ; Social Security and Public Pensions ; Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
• Subject: demographic transition ; computable general equilibrium model (CGE ) ; fertility ; mortality ; Bevölkerungspolitik ; Alternde Bevölkerung ; Bevölkerungsökonomie ; Allgemeines Gleichgewicht ; Demographischer Übergang ; Vereinigte Staaten ; Japan ; EU-Staaten

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Fehr, Hans ; Jokisch, Sabine ; Kotlikoff, Laurence J.
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
• (where): Munich
• (when): 2004

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/18691
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET