Welfare Costs of Catastrophes: Lost Consumption and Lost Lives

Arbeitspapier

Most of the literature on the economics of catastrophes assumes that such events cause a reduction in the stream of consumption, as opposed to widespread fatalities. Here we show how to incorporate death in a model of catastrophe avoidance, and how a catastrophic loss of life can be expressed as a welfare-equivalent drop in consumption. We examine how potential fatalities affect the policy interdependence of catastrophic events and “willingness to pay" (WTP) to avoid them. Using estimates of the “value of a statistical life" (VSL), we find the WTP to avoid major pandemics, and show it is large (10% or more of annual consumption) and partly driven by the risk of macroeconomic contractions. Likewise, the risk of pandemics significantly increases the WTP to reduce consumption risk. Our work links the VSL and consumption disaster literatures.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Working Paper ; No. 027.2020

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming ; Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
• Subject: Catastrophes ; Catastrophic Events ; Macroeconomic Contractions ; Disasters ; Fatalities ; Value of Life ; Willingness to Pay ; Pandemics

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Martin, Ian W. R. ; Pindyck, Robert S.
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)
• (where): Milano
• (when): 2020

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/228803
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET