Arbeitspapier

Capital flows: Catalyst or hindrance to economic takeoffs?

This paper applies a probit estimation to assess the relationship between economic takeoffs during 1950-2000 and inflows of portfolio debt, portfolio equity, and FDI, controlling for country's stock of short-term external debt and commodity terms of trade. Average level of FDI inflows is associated with a 23 percent higher takeoff probability relative to a zero FDI inflow benchmark, and this effect is highest for the Latin America subsample, with a 65 rise in takeoff probability. Higher stock of short term external debt has been associated with a substantial negative effect on the probability of a takeoff, and the effect of the short terms debt overhang is largest for Latin American countries. Yet, virtually all the takeoffs were associated with a rise in portfolio debt inflows. At the sample mean, inflow of portfolio debt is associated with approximately 25 percent higher probability of a takeoff. In contrast, a one standard deviation increase in equity outflows (inflows) is associated with a 47 percent (17 percent) decline in the probability of a takeoff. A one standard deviation improvement in commodity terms of trade is associated with 28 percent higher takeoff probability.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: Working Paper ; No. 11-05

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Economic Integration
International Investment; Long-term Capital Movements
Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
Economic Growth of Open Economies
Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General
Thema
Kapitalmobilität
Kapitalimport
Portfolio-Investition
Direktinvestition
Wirtschaftswachstum
Welt

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Aizenman, Joshua
Sushko, Vladyslav
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
University of California, Santa Cruz Institute for International Economics (SCIIE)
(wo)
Santa Cruz, CA
(wann)
2011

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:41 MEZ

Datenpartner

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Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Aizenman, Joshua
  • Sushko, Vladyslav
  • University of California, Santa Cruz Institute for International Economics (SCIIE)

Entstanden

  • 2011

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