Income risk inequality: Evidence from Spanish administrative records

Arbeitspapier

In this paper we use administrative data from the social security to study income dynamics and income risk inequality in Spain between 2005 and 2018. We construct individual measures of income risk as functions of past employment history, income, and demographics. Focusing on males, we document that income risk is highly unequal in Spain: more than half of the economy has close to perfect predictability of their income, while some face considerable uncertainty. Income risk is inversely related to income and age, and income risk inequality increases markedly in the recession. These findings are robust to a variety of specifications, including using neural networks for prediction and allowing for individual unobserved heterogeneity.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: IFS Working Paper ; No. W21/37

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions ; Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity ; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation ; Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
• Subject: Spain ; income dynamics ; administrative data ; income risk ; inequality

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Arellano, Manuel ; Bonhomme, Stéphane ; De Vera, Micole ; Hospido, Laura ; Wei, Siqi
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS)
• (where): London
• (when): 2021

Further information

• DOI: doi:10.1920/wp.ifs.2021.3721
• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/249692
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:45 AM CET