Oil prices and the US economy: Where is the boom?

Arbeitspapier

The author argues that the economic benefits of low gasoline prices for the U.S. economy have fallen substantially since the reemergence of America as a major oil producer. The old rule-ofthumb that a 10% fall in the oil price raises inflation-adjusted U.S. GDP by 0.2% is too large - the impact on economic activity should be closer to zero, and may even be negative if consumption grows slowly. The reasons for this change are straightforward, if underappreciated: (i) the value of oil production accounts for a larger share of the U.S. economy; and (ii) consumers are not spending the windfall like they used to because of higher debt levels, limited access to credit, slow wage growth, and an older population.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: Economics Discussion Papers ; No. 2015-48

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Input-Output Models ; Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy: General (includes Measurement and Data) ; Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General ; Energy and the Macroeconomy
• Thema: oil price ; economic activity ; input-output ; consumption

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Arora, Vipin
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
• (wo): Kiel
• (wann): 2015

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/111681
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ