Predicting farms' noncompliance with regulations on nitrate pollution

Arbeitspapier

Despite ongoing efforts by regulatory authorities, there is significant noncompliance with the EU Nitrates Directive among farms in Ireland. Nutrient pollution harms water quality and ecosystems, and farms are subject to fines for noncompliance. This paper examines reasons for noncompliance and develops methods to predict which farms have the highest probability of being in breach of the Nitrates Regulations. We estimate econometric models of noncompliance using rich administrative data on farm and farmer characteristics collected by Ireland's Department of Agriculture. We identify significant relationships between farm characteristics and the odds of a farm exceeding regulatory limits. We also find that econometric models can predict exceedances more accurately than a regulatory rule-of-thumb that flags farms with nitrates levels above a set threshold in the previous year. This approach illustrates the potential benefits of using statistical analysis of administrative data to assist regulatory enforcement when behavioural factors are involved.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: ESRI Working Paper ; No. 609

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets ; Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects ; Micro-Based Behavioral Economics: General‡
• Subject: regulatory compliance ; farmer behaviour ; nitrates ; Ireland

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Lunn, Pete ; Lyons, Sean ; Murphy, Martin
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)
• (where): Dublin
• (when): 2019

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/193946
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:41 AM CET