Arbeitspapier
Credit rating downgrade risk on equity returns
We develop a four-factor model intended to capture size, value, and credit rating transition patterns in excess returns for a panel of predominantly mid- and large-cap entities. Using credit transition matrices and rating histories from 48 US issuers, we provide evidence to support a statistically significant negative downgrade risk premium in excess returns, suggesting that stocks at higher risk of failure tend to deliver lower returns. The performance of the model remains robust across several estimation methods. Panel Granger causality test results indicate that there indeed is a Granger-causal relationship from credit rating transition probabilities to excess returns. Our paper thus provides a new methodology to generate firm-level downgrade probabilities and the basis for further empirical validation and development of Fama-French-type models under financial distress.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: IES Working Paper ; No. 13/2020
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
Behavioral Finance: Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets‡
- Thema
-
Asset pricing
credit risk
panel data
stock returns
transition matrices
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Brakatsoulas, Periklis
Kukacka, Jiri
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Charles University in Prague, Institute of Economic Studies (IES)
- (wo)
-
Prague
- (wann)
-
2020
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Brakatsoulas, Periklis
- Kukacka, Jiri
- Charles University in Prague, Institute of Economic Studies (IES)
Entstanden
- 2020
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