China's slowdown

Artikel

This paper evaluates explanations for China's growth slowdown. The natural tendency for rapidly growing economies to slow down is a major factor, along with problems bequeathed by unbalanced growth, including a declining ICOR, slowing total factor productivity growth, and rising indebtedness. A number of other mechanisms are of lesser importance: demographics, President Xi's centralization of political power and anti-corruption campaign, and U.S. export controls. Sustaining growth in the longer term will require China to step away from investment, debt and export-fueled growth in favor of a balanced growth model with household consumption playing a larger role. Doing so will require hardening of the budget constraints of regional and local governments and restructuring of the nonperforming debts of property and construction companies.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Journal: KDI Journal of Economic Policy ; ISSN: 2586-4130 ; Volume: 46 ; Year: 2024 ; Issue: 1 ; Pages: 1-19

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Institutions and the Macroeconomy ; Economic Development: General ; Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
• Subject: China ; Growth Slowdowns ; Economic Growth ; Debt

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Eichengreen, Barry
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Korea Development Institute (KDI)
• (where): Sejong
• (when): 2024

Further information

• DOI: doi:10.23895/kdijep.2024.46.1.1
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:45 AM CET