Global Business Cycles: Degree of Synchronization in the Current Downturn Is Unprecedented

Artikel

Empirical data analysis shows that the business cycles of industrialized nations demonstrate a fairly strong degree of synchronization in periods of growth, and a lesser degree of synchronization during periods of contraction. The current recession, however, breaks this pattern: the business cycles of industrialized nations have exhibited an unprecedented degree of synchronization since the start of the crisis. In the worst economic downturn since the end of the Second World War, the most important national economies have been drawn one after another into the maelstrom of global recession. In this paper we present a method for measuring business-cycle synchronization between individual countries. In our comparison of the current crisis with previous recessions, a focus is placed on the G7 nations and Germany's most important trading partners.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Journal: Weekly Report ; ISSN: 1860-3343 ; Volume: 5 ; Year: 2009 ; Issue: 27 ; Pages: 188-192 ; Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
• Subject: Business cycle synchronisation ; Markov switching models

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Kuzin, Vladimir ; Hillebrand, Martin
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
• (where): Berlin
• (when): 2009

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/151066
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET