Arbeitspapier
Beyond the crisis: Prospects for emerging Europe
This paper assesses the impact of the 2008-09 global financial and economic crisis on the medium-term growth prospects of the countries of central and eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia, which began an economic transition about two decades ago. We use cross-country growth regressions, putting special emphasis on a proper consideration of the crisis and robustness. We find that the crisis has had a major impact on the within-sample fit of the models used and that the positive impact of EU enlargement on growth is smaller than previous research has shown. The crisis has also altered the future growth prospects of the countries studied, even in the optimistic but unrealistic case of a return to pre-crisis capital inflows and credit booms.
- Language
-
Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Series: Bruegel Working Paper ; No. 2010/06
- Classification
-
Wirtschaft
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal Models
Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
- Subject
-
crisis
economic growth
growth regressions
transition countries
Finanzkrise
Makroökonomischer Einfluss
Wirtschaftswachstum
Regression
Osteuropa
Kaukasus
Zentralasien
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Darvas, Zsolt
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
-
Bruegel
- (where)
-
Brussels
- (when)
-
2010
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET
Data provider
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Darvas, Zsolt
- Bruegel
Time of origin
- 2010
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