Arbeitspapier
Inflation anchoring in the euro area
Did the decline in inflation rates from 2012 to 2015 and the low levels of market-based inflation expectations lead to de-anchored inflation dynamics in the euro area? This paper is the first time-varying event study to investigate the reaction of inflation-linked swap (ILS) rates – a market-based measure of inflation expectations – to macroeconomic surprises in the euro area. Compared to the pre-crisis period, surprises have a much stronger effect on spot ILS rates during the crisis. Medium-term forward ILS rates remain insensitive to news most of the time, which implies inflation anchoring. Only short periods of sensitivity on the part of medium-term forward ILS rates are identified at times of low inflation or recession. The sensitivity is lower over more distant forecast horizons such that medium-term sensitivity represents an inflation adjustment process and provides no evidence for a de-anchoring of inflation expectations or a loss of credibility for the Eurosystem’s policy target.
- ISBN
-
978-92-899-2720-8
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: ECB Working Paper ; No. 1998
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- Thema
-
central banking
event study
inflation anchoring
inflation expectations
inflation-linked swaps
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Speck, Christian
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
European Central Bank (ECB)
- (wo)
-
Frankfurt a. M.
- (wann)
-
2017
- DOI
-
doi:10.2866/095608
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Speck, Christian
- European Central Bank (ECB)
Entstanden
- 2017
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