Artikel

Selection criteria in regime switching conditional volatility models

A large number of nonlinear conditional heteroskedastic models have been proposed in the literature. Model selection is crucial to any statistical data analysis. In this article, we investigate whether the most commonly used selection criteria lead to choice of the right specification in a regime switching framework. We focus on two types of models: the Logistic Smooth Transition GARCH and the Markov-Switching GARCH models. Simulation experiments reveal that information criteria and loss functions can lead to misspecification ; BIC sometimes indicates the wrong regime switching framework. Depending on the Data Generating Process used in the experiments, great care is needed when choosing a criterion.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Journal: Econometrics ; ISSN: 2225-1146 ; Volume: 3 ; Year: 2015 ; Issue: 2 ; Pages: 289-316 ; Basel: MDPI

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Statistical Simulation Methods: General
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
Thema
conditional volatility
model selection
GARCH
regime switching

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Chuffart, Thomas
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
MDPI
(wo)
Basel
(wann)
2015

DOI
doi:10.3390/econometrics3020289
Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ

Datenpartner

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Objekttyp

  • Artikel

Beteiligte

  • Chuffart, Thomas
  • MDPI

Entstanden

  • 2015

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