Arbeitspapier
Does Central Bank Staff Beat Private Forecasters?
In the tradition of Romer and Romer (2000), this paper compares staff forecasts of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) for inflation and output with corresponding private forecasts. Standard tests show that the Fed and less so the ECB have a considerable information advantage about inflation and output. Using novel tests for conditional predictive ability and forecast stability for the US, we identify the driving forces of the narrowing of the information advantage of Greenbook forecasts coinciding with the Great Moderation.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: IWH Discussion Papers ; No. 5/2012
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Monetary Policy
Central Banks and Their Policies
- Thema
-
relative forecast performance
forecast stability
staff forecasts
private forecasts
real-time data
Relative Prognosegüte
Prognosestabilität
private Prognose
Zentralbankstabprognosen
Echtzeitdaten
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
El-Shagi, Makram
Giesen, Sebastian
Jung, Alexander
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)
- (wo)
-
Halle (Saale)
- (wann)
-
2012
- Handle
- URN
-
urn:nbn:de:101:1-201212176774
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- El-Shagi, Makram
- Giesen, Sebastian
- Jung, Alexander
- Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)
Entstanden
- 2012
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