Monetary Conditions in the Euro Area: Useful Indicators of Aggregate Demand Conditions?

Arbeitspapier

This paper reviews the usefulness of monetary conditions in the euro area as leading indicators for aggregate demand conditions. Monetary conditions are measured with the MCI concept proposed by the Bank of Canada, and with the yield spread. A central result is that causality runs in both ways between monetary and aggregate demand conditions. The endogeneity of monetary conditions raises important implications for its role as a predictor of aggregate demand. It is shown that the information content of monetary conditions depends on the source of business cycle fluctuations and on the response of the central bank to those fluctuations.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Kiel Working Paper ; No. 1037

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; Monetary Policy ; Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
• Subject: Monetary Conditions ; MCI ; Output Gap ; Konjunkturindikator ; Prognoseverfahren ; Gesamtwirtschaftliche Nachfrage ; Monetärer Indikator ; Zinsstruktur ; Wechselkurs ; Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion ; Schätzung ; EU-Staaten

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Gottschalk, Jan
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Kiel Institute of World Economics (IfW)
• (where): Kiel
• (when): 2001

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/17732
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET