Arbeitspapier

Exchange rate sensitivity of China's bilateral trade flows

Traditional assessments of the impact of exchange rate depreciation or appreciation on trade have involved estimating the elasticity of trade volume to relative prices.Such studies relied heavily on aggregated trade data.More recent studies employ bilateral trade data and methodologies such as ECM and gravity models.This study uses a generalized gravity model with data panel analysis in assessing the impact of currency depreciation or appreciation on bilateral trade flows between China and its top trading partners. The empirical evidence suggests exchange rates (both real and nominal) do not exert a significant influence on the overall exports from China.Thus, a devaluation or revaluation of the yuan should be expected to have only limited impact on China's trade balance.Moreover, previous studies provide limited evidence of a negative relation between exchange rate volatility and trade flows. Given the current revaluation expectations, we find China's anticipated shift toward a more flexible exchange rate regime fails to address China's trade surplus issues, and thus will merely lead to a revaluation of the nominal exchange rate and increased exchange rate volatility.It appears a major overhaul of the country's heavily subsidized export regime must first occur for the exchange rate to assume a larger role in China's international trade.

ISBN
952-462-846-5
Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: BOFIT Discussion Papers ; No. 19/2006

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal Models
Empirical Studies of Trade
Foreign Exchange
Thema
Exchange Rate
Trade
China
Competition
Gravity Model
Panel

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Wang, Jiao
Ji, Andy G.
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT)
(wo)
Helsinki
(wann)
2006

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:41 MEZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Wang, Jiao
  • Ji, Andy G.
  • Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT)

Entstanden

  • 2006

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