Arbeitspapier
A simple model of an oil based global savings glut: The 'China factor' and the OPEC cartel
The purpose of this contribution is to illustrate the mechanism by which higher oil prices might lead to lower interest rates in the context of a simple model that takes into account the global external savings equilibrium. The simple model has interesting implications for how one views the huge US current account deficit and how the emergence of China's savings surplus and oil supply shocks impact the global economy. We show that the new equilibrium is located at a lower interest rate but also at a lower growth rate than without the China effect. Moreover, we argue that the lower real interest rates resulting from excess OPEC savings have facilitated the adjustment to the subprime crisis.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: ROME Discussion Paper Series ; No. 09-03
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; Wealth
Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
Energy and the Macroeconomy
- Thema
-
China factor
current account adjustment
interest rate
oil prices
saving glut
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Belke, Ansgar
Gros, Daniel
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Research On Money in the Economy (ROME)
- (wo)
-
s.l.
- (wann)
-
2009
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Belke, Ansgar
- Gros, Daniel
- Research On Money in the Economy (ROME)
Entstanden
- 2009
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