The euro area Bank Lending Survey matters: empirical evidence for credit and output growth

Arbeitspapier

This study examines empirically the information content of the euro area Bank Lending Survey for aggregate credit and output growth. The responses of the lending survey, especially those related to loans to enterprises, are a significant leading indicator for euro area bank credit and real GDP growth. Notwithstanding the short history of the survey, the findings are robust across various specifications, including “horse races” with other well-known leading financial indicators. Our results are supportive of the existence of a bank lending, balance sheet, and risk-taking channel of monetary policy. They also suggest that price as well as non-price conditions and terms of credit standards do matter for credit and business cycles. Finally, we discuss the implications for the 2007/2009 financial and economic crisis.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: ECB Working Paper ; No. 1160

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal Models ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers ; Monetary Policy ; Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages ; Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation
• Subject: bank lending survey ; business cycle ; credit cycle ; euro area ; Monetary policy transmission ; Kreditgeschäft ; Konjunktur ; Geldpolitik ; Geldpolitische Transmission ; Eurozone ; EU-Staaten

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): de Bondt, Gabe ; Maddaloni, Angela ; Peydró, José-Luis ; Scopel, Silvia
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): European Central Bank (ECB)
• (where): Frankfurt a. M.
• (when): 2010

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/153594
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET