Arbeitspapier
Medium-Term Forecasts of Potential GDP and Inflation Using Age Structure Information
Economic behavior as well as economic resources of individuals vary with age. Swedish time series show that the age structure of the population contains information correlated to medium-term trends in growth, inflation and other macroeconomic data. GDP gaps estimated by age structure regressions are closely related to conventional measures using filters, time series methods, and structural models. Reliable estimates of potential GDP and other macroeconomic series often become available after (at least) a one-year lag. Monetary policy is believed to affect inflation with a lag of one or two years. Projections of the populations age structure are comparatively reliable several years ahead and provide additional information to improve on 3-5 years-ahead forecasts of potential GDP and inflation.
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
-
Series: Sveriges Riksbank Working Paper Series ; No. 99
- Classification
-
Wirtschaft
Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
Demographic Economics: General
Economywide Country Studies: Europe
- Subject
-
Age structure
Inflation forecasts
Potential GDP
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Lindh, Thomas
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
-
Sveriges Riksbank
- (where)
-
Stockholm
- (when)
-
1999
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET
Data provider
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Lindh, Thomas
- Sveriges Riksbank
Time of origin
- 1999
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