Arbeitspapier

The Impact of Aggregate Uncertainty on Firm-Level Uncertainty

We analyse the extent to which firm-level uncertainty is affected by aggregate uncertainty. Firm-level uncertainty is constructed from a large and monthly panel dataset of manufacturing firms. We find that aggregate uncertainty has a positive and robust impact on firm-level uncertainty. This effect holds across different types of domestic and international measures of aggregate uncertainty. However, the size of the impact is heterogeneous and depends on certain firm characteristics and the state of the business cycle. For example, the widely used economic policy uncertainty index matters to all firms’ uncertainty only in recessionary periods, while it is relevant over the entire business cycle only to large firms’ uncertainty.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 8934

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal Models
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
Thema
firm-level uncertainty
aggregate uncertainty
survey data

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Easaw, Joshy
Grimme, Christian
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
(wo)
Munich
(wann)
2021

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ

Datenpartner

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Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Easaw, Joshy
  • Grimme, Christian
  • Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)

Entstanden

  • 2021

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