The (Option-) Value of Overstaying

Arbeitspapier

The paper is structured around three main contributions. First, it takes advantage of a unique survey on Afghan asylum seekers in Germany to provide novel descriptive insights into asylum seekers' beliefs about their outcomes and the associated intention to overstay. Second, it estimates asylum seekers' perceived ex ante returns on overstaying, and option values of regularisation, deportation, and experimentation. Third, it assesses and rejects the cost-effectiveness argument for assisted voluntary return policies. Instead, it estimates a sizeable willingness-to-pay of asylum seekers for investments that would guarantee their regularisation.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 10536

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Single Equation Models; Single Variables: General ; Expectations; Speculations ; International Migration ; Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination ; Demographic Economics: Public Policy ; Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers ; Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
• Subject: subjective expectations ; intention to overstay ; asylum seekers ; Germany ; Afghanistan

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Méango, Romuald ; Poinas, François
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
• (where): Munich
• (when): 2023

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/279286
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET