Arbeitspapier
Biased probability judgment: evidence of incidence and relationship to economic outcomes from a representative sample
Many economic decisions involve a substantial amount of uncertainty, and therefore crucially depend on how individuals process probabilistic information. In this paper, we investigate the capability for probability judgment in a representative sample of the German population. Our results show that almost a third of the respondents exhibits systematically biased perceptions of probability. The findings also indicate that the observed biases are related to individual economic outcomes, which suggests potential policy relevance of our findings.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: IZA Discussion Papers ; No. 4170
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Design of Experiments: General
Microeconomics: General
Household Behavior: General
Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty: General
Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
Public Economics: General
- Thema
-
Bounded rationality
probability judgment
gambler's fallacy
hot hand fallacy
representative design
long-term unemployment
financial decision making
Beschränkte Rationalität
Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit
Test
Langzeitarbeitslosigkeit
Konsumentenverhalten
Deutschland
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Dohmen, Thomas
Falk, Armin
Huffman, David
Marklein, Felix
Sunde, Uwe
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
- (wo)
-
Bonn
- (wann)
-
2009
- Handle
- URN
-
urn:nbn:de:101:1-2009060824
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Dohmen, Thomas
- Falk, Armin
- Huffman, David
- Marklein, Felix
- Sunde, Uwe
- Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
Entstanden
- 2009
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