Arbeitspapier

A model of overconfidence

People use information about their ability to choose tasks. If more challenging tasks provide more accurate information about ability, people who care about and who are risk averse over their perception of their own ability will choose tasks that are not sufficiently challenging. Overestimation of ability raises utility by deluding people into believing that they are more able than they are in fact. Moderate overestimation of ability and overestimation of the precision of initial information leads people to choose tasks that raise expected output, however extreme overconfidence leads people to undertake tasks that are excessively challenging. Consistent with our results, psychologists have found that moderate overconfidence is both pervasive and advantageous and that people maintain such beliefs by underweighting new information about their ability.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: IZA Discussion Papers ; No. 4285

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Thema
Overconfidence
behavioral economics
information processing
Beschränkte Rationalität
Verhaltensökonomik
Informationsverhalten
Kognition
Theorie

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Weinberg, Bruce A.
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
(wo)
Bonn
(wann)
2009

Handle
URN
urn:nbn:de:101:1-2009082174
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Weinberg, Bruce A.
  • Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

Entstanden

  • 2009

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