Arbeitspapier
The Economic Consequences of the Brexit Vote
The unexpected outcome of the Brexit vote in June 2016 provides a rare macroeconomic experiment to study the aggregate consequences of a sudden change in expectations regarding future economic prospects. Using synthetic control methods, we show that forward looking households and businesses lowered spending in response to the vote, causing an output loss of more than 1 percent. Heightened economic policy and macroeconomic uncertainty explain close to half of the observed output loss. But a large part of the consequences of the vote also reflects a downgrade of expectations about long-run income, not only a wider dispersion of potential outcomes.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 6780
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
International Policy Coordination and Transmission
- Thema
-
Brexit
European Union
synthetic control method
VAR
anticipation effects
economic policy uncertainty
macroeconomic uncertainty
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Born, Benjamin
Müller, Gernot
Schularick, Moritz
Sedláček, Petr
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
- (wo)
-
Munich
- (wann)
-
2017
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Born, Benjamin
- Müller, Gernot
- Schularick, Moritz
- Sedláček, Petr
- Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
Entstanden
- 2017
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