Arbeitspapier
Nonparametric bootstrap procedures for predictive inference based on recursive estimation schemes
Our objectives in this paper are twofold. First, we introduce block bootstrap techniques that are (first order) valid in recursive estimation frameworks. Thereafter, we present two examples where predictive accuracy tests are made operational using our new bootstrap procedures. In one application, we outline a consistent test for out-of-sample nonlinear Granger causality, and in the other we outline a test for selecting amongst multiple alternative forecasting models, all of which are possibly misspecified. More specifically, our examples extend the White (2000) reality check to the case of non vanishing parameter estimation error, and extend the integrated conditional moment tests of Bierens (1982, 1990) and Bierens and Ploberger (1997) to the case of out-of-sample prediction. In both examples, appropriate re-centering of the bootstrap score is required in order to ensure that the tests have asymptotically correct size, and the need for such re-centering is shown to arise quite naturally when testing hypotheses of predictive accuracy. In a Monte Carlo investigation, we compare the finite sample properties of our block bootstrap procedures with the parametric bootstrap due to Kilian (1999); all within the context of various encompassing and predictive accuracy tests. An empirical illustration is also discussed, in which it is found that unemployment appears to have nonlinear marginal predictive content for inflation.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Working Paper ; No. 2006-18
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
Model Construction and Estimation
- Thema
-
Block bootstrap
nonlinear causality
parameter estimation error
reality check
recursive estimation scheme
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Corradi, Valentina
Swanson, Norman R.
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Rutgers University, Department of Economics
- (wo)
-
New Brunswick, NJ
- (wann)
-
2005
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Corradi, Valentina
- Swanson, Norman R.
- Rutgers University, Department of Economics
Entstanden
- 2005
Ähnliche Objekte (12)
Bootstrap Procedures for Recursive Estimation Schemes With Applications to Forecast Model Selection
On robustness of model-based bootstrap schemes in nonparametric time series analysis
On Robustness of Model-Based Bootstrap Schemes in Nonparametric Time Series Analysis
The Block Bootstrap for Parameter Estimation Error In Recursive Estimation Schemes, With Applications to Predictive Evaluation
Bootstrap procedures for time series
Properties of the nonparametric autoregressive bootstrap
Properties of the Nonparametric Autoregressive Bootstrap
Properties of the Nonparametric Autoregressive Bootstrap
Nonparametric sequential selection procedures
A wild bootstrap approach for nonparametric repeated measurements
Nonparametric procedures for the analysis of complex data
Efficient call-by-value evaluation strategy of primitive recursive program schemes
Bootstrap Procedures for Recursive Estimation Schemes With Applications to Forecast Model Selection
On robustness of model-based bootstrap schemes in nonparametric time series analysis
On Robustness of Model-Based Bootstrap Schemes in Nonparametric Time Series Analysis
The Block Bootstrap for Parameter Estimation Error In Recursive Estimation Schemes, With Applications to Predictive Evaluation
Bootstrap procedures for time series
Properties of the nonparametric autoregressive bootstrap
Properties of the Nonparametric Autoregressive Bootstrap
Properties of the Nonparametric Autoregressive Bootstrap
Nonparametric sequential selection procedures
A wild bootstrap approach for nonparametric repeated measurements
Nonparametric procedures for the analysis of complex data
Efficient call-by-value evaluation strategy of primitive recursive program schemes
Bootstrap Procedures for Recursive Estimation Schemes With Applications to Forecast Model Selection
On robustness of model-based bootstrap schemes in nonparametric time series analysis
On Robustness of Model-Based Bootstrap Schemes in Nonparametric Time Series Analysis
The Block Bootstrap for Parameter Estimation Error In Recursive Estimation Schemes, With Applications to Predictive Evaluation
Bootstrap procedures for time series
Properties of the nonparametric autoregressive bootstrap
Properties of the Nonparametric Autoregressive Bootstrap
Properties of the Nonparametric Autoregressive Bootstrap
Nonparametric sequential selection procedures
A wild bootstrap approach for nonparametric repeated measurements
Nonparametric procedures for the analysis of complex data