Arbeitspapier
Weather-based estimation of wildfire risk
Catastrophic wildfires in California have become more frequent in past decades, while insured losses per event have been rising substantially. On average, California ranks the highest among states in the U.S. in the number of fires as well as the number of acres burned each year. The study of catastrophic wildfire models plays an important role in the prevention and mitigation of such disasters. Accurate forecasts of potential large fires assist fire managers in preparing resources and strategic planning for fire suppression. Furthermore, fire forecasting can a priori inform insurers on potential financial losses due to large fires. This paper describes a probabilistic model for predicting wildland fire risks using the two-stage Heckman procedure. Using 37 years of spatial and temporal information on weather and fire records in Southern California, this model measures the probability of a fire occurring and estimates the expected size of the fire on a given day and location, offering a technique to predict and forecast wildfire occurrences based on weather information that is readily available at low cost.
- Language
-
Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
-
Series: SFB 649 Discussion Paper ; No. 2009,032
- Classification
-
Wirtschaft
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
Renewable Resources and Conservation: Forestry
Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
- Subject
-
biased sampling
forest fires
fire occurrence probabilities
fire weather
Brand
Naturkatastrophe
Wetter
Prognoseverfahren
Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung
Stichprobenverfahren
Kalifornien
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Ho, Joanne
Odening, Martin
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
-
Humboldt University of Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649 - Economic Risk
- (where)
-
Berlin
- (when)
-
2009
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET
Data provider
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Ho, Joanne
- Odening, Martin
- Humboldt University of Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649 - Economic Risk
Time of origin
- 2009
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