Arbeitspapier
The New Area-Wide Model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis
In this paper, we outline a version of the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) of the euro area designed for use in the (Broad) Macroeconomic Projection Exercises regularly undertaken by ECB/Eurosystem staff. We present estimation results for the NAWM that are obtained by employing Bayesian inference methods and document the properties of the estimated model by reporting its impulse-response functions and forecast-error-variance decompositions, by inspecting the model-based sample moments, and by examining the model’s forecasting performance relative to a number of benchmarks, including a Bayesian VAR. We finally consider several applications to illustrate the potential contributions the NAWM can make to forecasting and policy analysis.
- Language
-
Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
-
Series: ECB Working Paper ; No. 944
- Classification
-
Wirtschaft
Bayesian Analysis: General
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- Subject
-
Bayesian inference
DSGE modelling
euro area
forecasting
open-economy macroeconomics
policy analysis
Makroökonometrie
Offene Volkswirtschaft
Mikrofundierung
Wirtschaftsprognose
Eurozone
Dynamisches Gleichgewicht
EU-Staaten
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Christoffel, Kai
Coenen, Günter
Warne, Anders
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
-
European Central Bank (ECB)
- (where)
-
Frankfurt a. M.
- (when)
-
2008
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:41 AM CET
Data provider
This object is provided by:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Christoffel, Kai
- Coenen, Günter
- Warne, Anders
- European Central Bank (ECB)
Time of origin
- 2008
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