Arbeitspapier
Macroeconomic vulnerability and disagreement in expectations
In this paper we discuss the role of the cross-sectional heterogeneity of beliefs in the context of understanding and assessing macroeconomic vulnerability. Emphasis lies on the potential of changing levels of disagreement in expectations to influence the propensity of the economy to switch between different regimes, a hypothesis that finds robust empirical support from a regime-switching model with endogenous transition probabilities for output growth and realized stock market volatility in the US.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: ECB Working Paper ; No. 1407
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- Thema
-
business cycles
endogenous transition probabilities
forecasting
Heterogeneous beliefs
regime-switching
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Badarinza, Cristian
Buchmann, Marco
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
European Central Bank (ECB)
- (wo)
-
Frankfurt a. M.
- (wann)
-
2011
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:46 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Badarinza, Cristian
- Buchmann, Marco
- European Central Bank (ECB)
Entstanden
- 2011
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