Model spread in multidecadal North Atlantic Oscillation variability connected to stratosphere–troposphere coupling

Abstract r = - 0.55, p < 0.05). However, this relationship is relatively weak and becomes obscured when using a common period (1900–2010) and de-trending the data in a consistent way, with observations to enable a model–data comparison. This suggests that the representation of NAO–AMV coupling contributes to a modest proportion of inter-model spread in multidecadal NAO variability, although the importance of this process for model spread could be underestimated, given evidence of a systematically poor representation of the coupling in the models. We find a significant inter-model correlation between multidecadal NAO variability and multidecadal stratospheric polar vortex variability and a stratosphere–troposphere coupling parameter, which quantifies the relationship between stratospheric winds and the NAO. The models with the lowest NAO variance are associated with weaker polar vortex variability and a weaker stratosphere–troposphere coupling parameter. The two stratospheric indices are uncorrelated across models and together give a pooled R 2 R 2 = 0.3). The identification of this relationship suggests that modelled spread in multidecadal NAO variability has the potential to be reduced by improved knowledge of observed multidecadal stratospheric variability; however, observational records are currently too short to provide a robust constraint on these indices.

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• Standort: Deutsche Nationalbibliothek Frankfurt am Main
• Umfang: Online-Ressource
• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Model spread in multidecadal North Atlantic Oscillation variability connected to stratosphere–troposphere coupling ; volume:5 ; number:3 ; year:2024 ; pages:913-926 ; extent:14 ; Weather and climate dynamics ; 5, Heft 3 (2024), 913-926 (gesamt 14)

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Urheber: Bonnet, Rémy ; McKenna, Christine M. ; Maycock, Amanda C.

Weitere Informationen

• DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-913-2024
• URN: urn:nbn:de:101:1-2408061502249.144700985014
• Rechteinformation: Open Access; Der Zugriff auf das Objekt ist unbeschränkt möglich.