Arbeitspapier
Spillovers of United States and People's Republic of China shocks on small open economies: The case of Indonesia
This paper examines the impact of certain external shocks originating from the United States (US) and People's Republic of China (PRC) on Indonesia as a small open economy. The spillover effects of tapering off, an interest rate hike, exchange rate devaluation, and real gross domestic product (GDP) are analyzed. Two versions of the global vector autoregression model are employed, which covers 33 countries and considers both financial and trade relations among countries. Spillover assessments are conducted through impulse responses with 1,000 bootstrap replications, and compared to the responses of peer countries. The results suggest that the main risk for Indonesia's real GDP is a shock to the PRC's real GDP, while a US interest rate hike is the greatest risk to Indonesia's exchange rate depreciation in the short term, especially compared to the US tapering off. Moreover, the dominant transmission channel of US monetary tightening is through finance, dampening economic growth in small open economies.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: ADBI Working Paper ; No. 616
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- Thema
-
Spillovers
small open economies
tapering off
interest rate hike
exchange rate devaluation
real GDP
PRC
Indonesia
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Harahap, Berry A.
Bary, Pakasa
Panjaitan, Linda N.
Satyanugroho, Redianto
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)
- (wo)
-
Tokyo
- (wann)
-
2016
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Harahap, Berry A.
- Bary, Pakasa
- Panjaitan, Linda N.
- Satyanugroho, Redianto
- Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)
Entstanden
- 2016
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