The social value of information: A test of a beauty and non-beauty contest

Arbeitspapier

We develop and apply a procedure to test the welfare implications of a beauty and non-beauty contest based on survey forecasts of interest rates and yields in a large country sample over an extended period of time. In most countries, interest rate forecasts are unbiased and consistent with both models, but are rarely supported by yield forecasts. In half of the countries, a higher precision of public information regarding interest rates increases welfare. During forward guidance, public information is less precise than private information.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: WWZ Working Paper ; No. 2018/05

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects ; Monetary Policy ; Central Banks and Their Policies ; Financial Institutions and Services: Other
• Subject: value of information ; beauty contest ; interest rate forecasts ; bond yield forecasts ; strategic forecasts ; central bank transparency ; forward guidance

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Lustenberger, Thomas ; Rossi, Enzo
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): University of Basel, Center of Business and Economics (WWZ)
• (where): Basel
• (when): 2018

Further information

• DOI: doi:10.5451/unibas-ep61497
• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/185807
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET