Artikel
Short-term currency in circulation forecasting for monetary policy purposes: The case of Poland
One of the most significant factors which influences the level of banking sector liquidity is Currency in Circulation. Although the central bank is in charge of distribution of the currency it can't assess the demand for the currency, as that demand is generated by the customers of commercial banks. Therefore, the amount of Currency in Circulation has to be modelled and forecasted. This paper introduces ARIMA(2,1) and SARIMA(2,1)(5,0) models with dummy variables and discusses its applicability to the forecasting of Currency in Circulation. The forecasting performance of these models is compared. The results indicate that the performance of SARIMA(2,1)(5,0) is better and that both models might be applied for monetary policy purposes as supportive tools for banking sector liquidity forecasting.
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Journal: e-Finanse: Financial Internet Quarterly ; ISSN: 1734-039X ; Volume: 11 ; Year: 2015 ; Issue: 1 ; Pages: 65-75 ; Rzeszów: University of Information Technology and Management
- Classification
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Wirtschaft
Econometrics
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
Monetary Policy
- Subject
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Currency in Circulation
Banking Sector Liquidity
Monetary Policy
- Event
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Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
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Koziński, Witold
Świst, Tomasz
- Event
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Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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University of Information Technology and Management
- (where)
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Rzeszów
- (when)
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2015
- DOI
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doi:10.14636/1734-039X_11_1_007
- Handle
- Last update
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10.03.2025, 11:41 AM CET
Data provider
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Artikel
Associated
- Koziński, Witold
- Świst, Tomasz
- University of Information Technology and Management
Time of origin
- 2015
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