Arbeitspapier

Consumption, wealth, stock and housing returns: Evidence from emerging markets

In this paper, we show, using the consumer's budget constraint, that the residuals of the trend relationship among consumption, aggregate wealth, and labour income should predict both stock returns and housing returns. We use quarterly data for a panel of 31 emerging economies and find that, when agents expect future stock returns to be higher, they will temporarily allow consumption to rise. Regarding housing returns, if housing assets are complementary to stocks, then investors react in the same way. If, however, the increase in the exposure through risky assets is achieved by lowering the share of wealth held in the form of housing (i.e., when stock and housing assets are substitutes), then they will temporarily reduce their consumption.

Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 3601

Classification
Wirtschaft
Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; Wealth
Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
Subject
consumption
wealth
stock returns
housing returns
emerging markets

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria
Sousa, Ricardo M.
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
(where)
Munich
(when)
2011

Handle
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET

Data provider

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Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • Caporale, Guglielmo Maria
  • Sousa, Ricardo M.
  • Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)

Time of origin

  • 2011

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