Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change?

Abstract - 6.3 ° C or - 3.4 σ seasonal December–January–February (DJF) temperature anomaly relative to 1981–2010), is still possible in a warming climate. Here, we first show based on multiple attribution methods that a winter of similar circulation conditions to 1963 would still lead to an extreme seasonal cold anomaly of about - 4.9 to - 4.7 ° C (best estimates across methods) under present-day climate. This would rank as the second-coldest winter in the last 75 years. Second, we conceive storylines of worst-case cold winter conditions based on two independent rare event sampling methods (climate model boosting and empirical importance sampling): a winter as cold as 1963 is still physically possible in central Europe today, albeit very unlikely. While cold winter hazards become less frequent and less intense in a warming climate overall, it remains crucial to anticipate the possibility of an extremely cold winter to avoid potential maladaptation and increased vulnerability.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Standort: Deutsche Nationalbibliothek Frankfurt am Main
• Umfang: Online-Ressource
• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change? ; volume:5 ; number:3 ; year:2024 ; pages:943-957 ; extent:15 ; Weather and climate dynamics ; 5, Heft 3 (2024), 943-957 (gesamt 15)

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Urheber: Sippel, Sebastian ; Barnes, Clair ; Cadiou, Camille ; Fischer, Erich ; Kew, Sarah ; Kretschmer, Marlene ; Philip, Sjoukje ; Shepherd, Theodore G. ; Singh, Jitendra ; Vautard, Robert ; Yiou, Pascal

Weitere Informationen

• DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024
• URN: urn:nbn:de:101:1-2408061450568.436176059111
• Rechteinformation: Open Access; Der Zugriff auf das Objekt ist unbeschränkt möglich.
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 14.08.2025, 10:49 MESZ