Arbeitspapier
Breakthroughs, Backlashes and Artificial General Intelligence: An Extended Real Options Approach
Breakthroughs and backlashes have marked progress in the development and diffusion of Artificial Intelligence (AI). These shocks make the investment in developing an Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) subject to considerable uncertainty. This paper applies a real options model, extended to account for stochastic jumps, to model the consequences of these breakthroughs and backlashes characterising on investment for an AGI. The model analytics indicate that the average magnitude and frequency of stochastic jumps will determine the optimum amount of time and money to invest in pursuing an AGI and that these may be too expensive and time-consuming for most private entrepreneurs.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: IZA Discussion Papers ; No. 15077
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
- Thema
-
radical innovation
real option models
artificial intelligence
risk
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Gries, Thomas
Naudé, Wim
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
- (wo)
-
Bonn
- (wann)
-
2022
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:41 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Gries, Thomas
- Naudé, Wim
- Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
Entstanden
- 2022
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