Arbeitspapier

The Impact of Macro News and Central Bank Communication on Emerging European Forex Markets

We employ two-stage empirical strategy to analyze the impact of macroeconomic news and central bank communication on the exchange rates of three Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies against the euro. First we estimate the nominal equilibrium exchange rate based on a monetary model. Second, we employ a high-frequency GARCH model to estimate the effects of the news and communication along with the estimated exchange rate misalignment on exchange rate as well as its volatility. Analysis is performed during the pre-crisis (2004–2007) and crisis (2008–2009) periods. CEE currencies react to macroeconomic news during both periods in an intuitive manner that corresponds to exchange rate-related theories. Responsiveness of the currencies to central bank verbal interventions becomes important only during the crisis period, though.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 4288

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Foreign Exchange
Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
Capitalist Systems: Performance and Prospects
Thema
exchange rate
macroeconomic news
central bank communication
monetary model
Central Europe
European Union

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Egert, Balazs
Kocenda, Evžen
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
(wo)
Munich
(wann)
2013

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:41 MEZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Egert, Balazs
  • Kocenda, Evžen
  • Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)

Entstanden

  • 2013

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