German Churches in Times of Demographic Change and Declining Affiliation: A Projection to 2060

Abstract: The problem of declining membership in Germany’s churches has been apparent for almost half a century. However, few scientific studies have investigated the respective influences of demographic and church-specific phenomena, as well as the potential impact if present trends continue. To answer these questions, we use a cohort component model and project the membership of each German Catholic diocese and Protestant regional church until 2060. Thus, for the first time we present a projection of church members for each of the 27 Catholic (arch-) dioceses and the 20 Protestant regional churches, as well as for the entire Evangelical Church and the Roman Catholic Church in Germany. We collected data from dioceses, Protestant regional churches and the Federal Statistical Office. Under the assumptions made, the results suggest a continued decline in membership and that by 2060 the number of church members would be half the number of 2017. Protestant Church membership would have shrunk sli

Objekt anzeigen

• Standort: Deutsche Nationalbibliothek Frankfurt am Main
• Umfang: Online-Ressource
• Sprache: Englisch
• Anmerkungen: Veröffentlichungsversion ; begutachtet (peer reviewed) ; In: Comparative Population Studies - Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft ; 45 (2020) ; 3-34

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wo): Mannheim
• (wer): SSOAR - Social Science Open Access Repository
• (wann): 2020
• Urheber: Gutmann, David ; Peters, Fabian

Weitere Informationen

• DOI: 10.12765/CPoS-2020-01en
• URN: urn:nbn:de:101:1-2021070207404539101459
• Rechteinformation: Open Access; Der Zugriff auf das Objekt ist unbeschränkt möglich.