Bayesian learning and expectations formation: Anything goes

Arbeitspapier

The paper proves that the Bayesian approach to learning and expectations formation implies no propositions that could conceivably be refuted by observation. For a (non-expanding) universe infinite in time but finite at any point of time, it is shown that by a suitable choice of priors, any betting strategy can be rationalized. Consequently, no sequence of future choices can be excluded on the basis of a decision maker's v. Neumann-Morgenstern utility function, her knowledge of past observations, and the assumption of Bayesian rationality. Since no betting strategy is irrational, Bayesianism is useless as a normative theory as well.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: Diskussionsbeiträge - Serie I ; No. 284

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Economic Methodology ; Bayesian Analysis: General ; Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty ; Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness ; Expectations; Speculations
• Thema: Bayesianism ; Bayesian learning ; decision theory ; expectations ; learning ; rational expectations ; rationality ; rationalizability ; subjectively expected utility theory ; subjective probability

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Albert, Max
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Universität Konstanz, Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften und Statistik
• (wo): Konstanz
• (wann): 1996

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/68915
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ