Trade and business cycle synchronization in OECD countries : a re-examination

Arbeitspapier

This paper re-examines the relationship between trade intensity and business cycle synchronization for 21 OECD countries during 1970-2003. Instead of using instrumental variables, we estimate a multivariate model including variables capturing specialisation, financial integration, and similarity of economic policies. We confirm that trade intensity affects business cycle synchronization, but the effect is much smaller than previously reported. Other factors in our model have a similar impact on business cycle synchronization as trade intensity. Finally, we find that the effect of trade on business cycle synchronisation is not driven by outliers and does not suffer from parameter heterogeneity.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 1546

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; International Policy Coordination and Transmission ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles
• Subject: business cycles ; trade ; synchronization of business cycles ; Konjunkturzusammenhang ; Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen ; Schätzung ; OECD-Staaten

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Inklaar, Robert ; Jong-A-Pin, Richard ; de Haan, Jakob
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
• (where): Munich
• (when): 2005

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/19010
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET