The economic costs of supply chain decoupling

Arbeitspapier

As countries and firms increasingly seek ways to strengthen the resilience of their supply chains, this paper studies the global economic costs of a decoupling of global supply chains along geopolitical lines as well as in strategic sectors. We explore not only the long-run effects, but also the short-run costs stemming from rigid wages and low substitutability across factors of production and input goods. We find that, in terms of welfare losses, the costs of decoupling are roughly five times higher in the short-run compared to the long-run, while country losses are heterogeneous. A reshaping of global supply chains increases the level of consumer prices in most countries, as well as producer prices, especially for trade-intensive manufacturing sectors. Global supply chain decoupling entails also a reallocation of labour across skill levels. Finally, global trade would decrease substantially, driven by lower trade in intermediate inputs and a higher reliance of countries on domestic production.

Angaben zum Objekt

• ISBN: 978-92-899-6124-0
• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: ECB Working Paper ; No. 2839

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation ; Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations ; Empirical Studies of Trade ; International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions ; Economic Impacts of Globalization: Macroeconomic Impacts
• Thema: International trade ; trade modelling ; global value chains ; decoupling

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Attinasi, Maria-Grazia ; Boeckelmann, Lukas ; Meunier, Baptiste
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): European Central Bank (ECB)
• (wo): Frankfurt a. M.
• (wann): 2023

Weitere Informationen

• DOI: doi:10.2866/102280
• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/278671
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ