Win-win? Assessing the global impact of the Chinese economy

Arbeitspapier

We study the global impact of the Chinese economy based on a novel indirect approach where the spillover effect is quantified from a forecast error model under relatively favorable identifying con-ditions. Findings from the real-time World Economic Outlook data over the period 2004-2015 indicate that an increase in economic growth in China had a negative impact on most other economies one to two years ahead. The estimations furthermore uncover evidence at the global level that spill-over propagated by influencing prices, including global commodity prices, which tend to increase in reaction to accelerating economic growth in China.

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• ISBN: 978-952-323-315-7
• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: BOFIT Discussion Papers ; No. 4/2020

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Economic Integration ; International Business Cycles
• Subject: Chinese economy ; global spillover ; real time data

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Herrala, Risto ; Orlandi, Fabrice
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT)
• (where): Helsinki
• (when): 2020

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/240355