Arbeitspapier

Short- and Long-Run Effects of a Sizable Child Subsidy: Evidence from Russia

This paper utilizes a large-scale natural experiment aimed at increasing fertility in Russia. Motivated by a decade-long decrease in fertility and population, the Russian government introduced a sequence of sizable child subsidies (called Maternity Capitals) in 2007 and 2012. We find that the Maternity Capital resulted in a significant increase in fertility both in the short run and in the long run, and has already resulted in an increase in completed fertility for a large cohort of Russian women. The subsidy is conditional and can be used mainly to buy housing. We find that fertility grew faster in regions with a shortage of housing and with a higher ratio of subsidy to housing prices. We also find that the subsidy has a substantial general equilibrium effect. It affected the housing market and family stability. Finally, we show that this government intervention comes at a substantial cost: the government's willingness to pay for an additional birth induced by the program equals approximately 50,000 dollars.

Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: IZA Discussion Papers ; No. 13019

Classification
Wirtschaft
Subject
fertility
maternity capital
housing

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Sorvachev, Ilia
Yakovlev, Evgeny
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
(where)
Bonn
(when)
2020

Handle
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET

Data provider

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Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • Sorvachev, Ilia
  • Yakovlev, Evgeny
  • Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Time of origin

  • 2020

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