Arbeitspapier
Do decision makers have subjective probabilities? An experimental test
Anscombe and Aumann (1963) offer a definition of subjective probability in terms of comparisons with objective probabilities. That definition - which has provided the basis for much of the succeeding work on subjective probability - presumes that the subjective probability of an event is independent of the prize consequences of that event, a property we term Prize Independence. We design experiments to test Prize Independence and find that a large fraction of our subjects violate it; thus, they do not have subjective probabilities. These findings raise questions about the empirical relevance of much of the literature on subjective probability.
- Sprache
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Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Working Paper ; No. 940
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
Expectations; Speculations
- Thema
-
subjective probability
choice under uncertainty
online experiments
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Ronayne, David
Veneziani, Roberto
Zame, William R.
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance
- (wo)
-
London
- (wann)
-
2022
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Ronayne, David
- Veneziani, Roberto
- Zame, William R.
- Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance
Entstanden
- 2022
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