Arbeitspapier
Where You Export Matters: Measuring Uncertainty in Turkey's Export Markets
Using data from the World Uncertainty, World Trade Uncertainty, and World Pandemic Uncertainty indices for 142 countries, this paper introduces three new indicators for measuring uncertainty in Turkey’s export markets from the first quarter of 1996 to the first quarter of 2020. The indicators measure uncertainty in Turkey’s export destinations. After introducing three indicators of uncertainty for export markets, we investigate their effects on economic growth. We find that all uncertainty indicators are negatively related to economic performance. Specifically, an increase in uncertainty in export destinations leads to a slower growth rate of up to two quarters. Pandemic-induced uncertainty negatively affects economic growth only at the higher quantiles. We also discuss potential implications.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 8404
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Empirical Studies of Trade
Economic Growth of Open Economies
Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions
- Thema
-
export market diversification
economic policy uncertainty
trade policy uncertainty
Covid-19 uncertainties
developing economics
quantile regressions
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Fang, Jianchun
Gozgor, Giray
Pekel, Sercan
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
- (wo)
-
Munich
- (wann)
-
2020
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
- 10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Fang, Jianchun
- Gozgor, Giray
- Pekel, Sercan
- Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
Entstanden
- 2020
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