What do firm managers tell us about the transmission channels of oil price shocks?

Arbeitspapier

In this paper, we investigate the transmission channels of oil price shocks using a factorial survey. We confront CEOs and CFOs of a representative sample of firms with a hypothetical vignette in which the oil price rises exogenously above managers' baseline expectations. The managers then estimate the short- and medium-term cost, price, and output effects of the shock on their firms. We find that the managers expect the shock to have very different effects on their firms: the cross-sectional distributions of the responses are large, skewed, and have fat tails. Higher firm-specific energy input costs lead managers to expect greater output losses and sales price increases. Higher market power accelerates this input cost effect. Another important determinant is managers' pre-shock uncertainty about business prospects. The importance of the three channels varies considerably across industries.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: KOF Working Papers ; No. 507

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Survey Methods; Sampling Methods ; Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis ; Expectations; Speculations ; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles
• Thema: Oil price shocks ; transmission channels ; firms ; expectations ; surveys ; vignettes

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Drechsel, Dirk ; Mikosch, Heiner ; Sarferaz, Samad ; Bannert, Matthias
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
• (wo): Zurich
• (wann): 2022

Weitere Informationen

• DOI: doi:10.3929/ethz-b-000584846
• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/278237
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ