Modelling Ireland's exchange rates: From EMS to EMU

Arbeitspapier

This paper attempts to model the nominal and real exchange rate for Ireland, relative to Germany and the UK from 1975 to 2003. It offers an overview of the theory of purchasing power parity (Ppp), focusing particularly on likely sources of nonlinearity. Potential difficulties in placing the analysis in the standard I(1)/I(0) framework are highlighted and comparisons with previous Irish studies are made. Tests for fractional integration and nonlinearity, including random field regressions, are discussed and applied. The results obtained highlight the likely inadequacies of the standard cointegration and Star approaches to modelling, and point instead to multiple structural changes models. Using this approach, both bilateral nominal exchange rates are effectively modelled, and in the case of Ireland and Germany, Ppp is found to be valid not only in the long run, but also in the medium term.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: UCD Centre for Economic Research Working Paper Series ; No. WP07/18

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes ; Model Construction and Estimation ; Foreign Exchange ; Open Economy Macroeconomics
• Subject: purchasing power parity ; fractional Dickey-Fuller tests ; smooth transition autoregression ; random field regression ; multiple structural changes models ; Wechselkurssystem ; Wechselkurs ; Kaufkraftparität ; Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion ; Unit Root Test ; Irland ; Deutschland ; Großbritannien

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Bond, Derek ; Harrison, Michael J. ; O'Brien, Edward J.
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): University College Dublin, UCD School of Economics
• (where): Dublin
• (when): 2007

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/43359
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:46 AM CET