Output Volatility, Economic Growth, and Cross-Country Spillovers: New Evidence for the G7 Countries

Arbeitspapier

This paper considers the linkages between output growth and output volatility for the sample of G7 countries over the period 1958M2-2011M7, thereby paying particular attention to spillovers within and between countries. Using the VAR-based spillover index approach by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012), we identify several empirical regularities: i) output growth and volatility are highly intertwined, with spillovers taking place into all four directions; ii) the importance of spillovers has increased after the mid 1980s and reached unprecedented levels during the recent financial and economic crisis; iii) the US has been the largest transmitter of output and volatility shocks to other countries. Generalized impulse response analyses point to moderate growth-growth spillovers and sizable volatility-volatility spillovers across countries, suggesting that volatility shocks quintuplicate in the long run. The cross-variable effects turn out negative: volatility shocks lead to lower economic growth, growth shocks tend to reduce output volatility. Our findings underline the increased vulnerability of the G7 countries to destabilizing shocks and their detrimental effects on economic growth, which are sizeably amplified through international spillover effects and the associated repercussions.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: FIW Working Paper ; No. 98

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; Open Economy Macroeconomics ; Economic Growth of Open Economies ; International Business Cycles
• Subject: Output growth ; Output growth volatility ; Spillover ; Vector autoregression ; Variance decomposition ; Impulse response OLI paradigm and R&D

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Antonakakis, Nikolaos ; Badinger, Harald
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): FIW - Research Centre International Economics
• (where): Vienna
• (when): 2012

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/121093
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:41 AM CET