Arbeitspapier
Sources of German unemployment: A structural vector error correction analysis
In this paper we analyze the sources of German unemployment within a structural vector error correction model (SVECM) framework. For this purpose, we propose a method to estimate an exactly identified Subset SVECM, which is a SVECM with short run parameter restrictions. A cointegration analysis for the unified Germany reveals a long rum relationship between real wages, productivity and unemployment which is interpreted as a wage setting relation. From a Subset VECM we identify meaningful structural shocks and assess their importance for unemployment by impulse response analysis and forecast error variance decompositions. We compare these results to results from a standard SVECM and find that, using the Subset VECM reduces estimation uncertainty. In contrast to previous studies for West Germany, we find that, unemployment is equally determined by technology, labor supply and labor demand shocks in the long run. - Unemployment ; Subset VECM ; Structural VECM ; Bootstrap ; Cointegration
- Sprache
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Englisch
- Erschienen in
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Series: SFB 373 Discussion Paper ; No. 2001,19
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Brüggemann, Ralf
- Ereignis
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Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
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Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes
- (wo)
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Berlin
- (wann)
-
2001
- Handle
- URN
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urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-10049387
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Brüggemann, Ralf
- Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes
Entstanden
- 2001
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