Arbeitspapier
Will the (German) NAIRU Please Stand up?
This paper deals with a critical assessment and a reestimation of the "non-accelerating in ation rate of unemployment" (NAIRU) for Germany. There are quite a few obstacles to perceiving the NAIRU as an understandable and easy-to-use analytical instrument, suitable for economic policy: the possibility of a non-vertical Phillips curve (e.g. in times of low in ation), the occurrence of shocks and hysteresis effects, the (mis-)measurement of important variables such as in ation expectations, cointegration issues, and a time variability of the NAIRU and its confidence intervals. Despite many serious caveats a new attempt is made to estimate a NAIRU for Germany based on conventional Phillips curves as well as on new approaches such as using direct measures of in ationary expectations, the Kalman filter method, and the residual-based bootstrap procedure (in order to estimate confidence intervals). However, by any method, simple or complex, the NAIRU is very hard to determine and subject to considerable arbitrariness.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: ZEW Discussion Papers ; No. 03-35
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- Thema
-
NAIRU
unemployment
inflation
Phillips curve
natural rate
hysteresis
supply shocks
inflation expectations
Kalman filter
bootstrap
Natürliche Arbeitslosigkeit
Schätzung
Deutschland
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Franz, Wolfgang
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW)
- (wo)
-
Mannheim
- (wann)
-
2003
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Franz, Wolfgang
- Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW)
Entstanden
- 2003