Arbeitspapier
Lifting the US crude oil export ban: A numerical partial-equilibrium analysis
The upheaval in global crude oil markets and the boom in oil production from shale plays in North America have brought scrutiny on the export ban for crude oil in the United States. This paper examines the global flows and strategic refinery adjustments in a spatial, game-theoretic partial-equilibrium model. We consider de- tailed supply chain infrastructure with multiple crude oil qualities (supply), distinct oil products (demand), as well as specific refinery configurations and modes of transport (mid-stream). Investments in production capacity and infrastructure are endogenous. We compare two development pathways for the global oil market: one projection retaining the US export ban, and a counterfactual scenario lifting the export restrictions. Lifting the US crude ban, we find significant expansion of US sweet crude exports. In the US refinery sector, more heavy sour crude is imported and transformed. While US producers gain, the profits of US refiners decrease, due to reduced market distortions and a more efficient resource allocation. Countries importing US sweet crude benefit from higher product output, while avoiding costly refinery investments. Producers of heavy sour crude (e.g. the Middle East) are incentivised to climb up the value chain to defend their market share and maintain their dominant position.
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Series: DIW Discussion Papers ; No. 1548
- Classification
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Wirtschaft
Energy: Demand and Supply; Prices
Energy Forecasting
Energy: Government Policy
Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
- Subject
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energy system model
crude oil market
US crude export ban
refining capacity
infrastructure investment
- Event
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Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Langer, Lissy
Huppmann, Daniel
Holz, Franziska
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
- (where)
-
Berlin
- (when)
-
2016
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET
Data provider
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Langer, Lissy
- Huppmann, Daniel
- Holz, Franziska
- Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
Time of origin
- 2016
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Lifting the US crude oil export ban : A numerical partial-equilibrium analysis
Modeling the European natural gas market : static and dynamic perspectives of an oligopolistic market
A model for the global crude oil market using a multi-pool MCP approach
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